Although prediction markets can work well, they don’t always. PredictItThis isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. It has been described as one of two legal ways to bet on elections in the United States. 1. It operates on a much smaller scale, however. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any one contract a person can hold. C. August 5, 2022 at 1:23 PM · 2 min read. This prevents a handful of wealthy individuals from putting down thousands of. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. And just like in Las Vegas for the NFL Championship, there will be plenty of proposition wagering available. Fortunately, they made an exception for PredictIt. 3 million shares traded on Wednesday morning, according to PredictIt. When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any. org. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" 4: Investment Interest Rate/Time Value of Money. Global Traffic Rank. Some platforms like Metaculus and Hypermind use volunteers with prizes, others, like PredictIt and Smarkets are formal betting markets. wider elections, the stock market, the real estate market, etc. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. PredictItLibrary/framework for making predictions. Kalshi and PredictIt are both great platforms for participating in prediction markets, each with their own unique strengths and weaknesses. It's like a candy store for political and pop culture enthusiasts. Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit. To put it simply, PredictIt allows customers to trade “yes” and “no” shares on the outcomes of future political events at prices ranging from $0. 55% of desktop visits last month, and Organic Search is the 2nd with 6. Less than one year after committing to PredictIt full time, Rainbow Jeremy is on the top of the heap, making between $15,000 and $25,000 a month betting on congressional elections and Trump’s. Industry. In 2022, overpayments within the SSI program topped $4. CryptoFind out everything you need to know about PredictIt before you play. Predictit is. The most underutilized channel is Paid Search. I am literally at risk for $44 in the general election market, but that does not allow me to continue to trade. Register Now. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Site has approval of government officials. US President Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Tracker. Similar Sites & predictit. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. S. While markets like PredictIt meet the demand of those who want to speculate on political outcomes, they also accommodate businesses that seek to hedge against adverse consequences from such outcomes. org competitors and alternatives. A project of Aristotle, a data company, and the Victoria University of Wellington. Cicada: Mar 2019 #1: You made a claim , followed by " I don't know if it's true" Talking Tom: Mar 2019 #3: Betting sites have proven validity. 24 Tuesday, with over half of that drop coming in the past week, amid a bizarre and. PredictIt To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. In Trump's first year in office, PredictIt's population of traders has grown to 80,000 from 50,000 as the White House deals political junkies a litany of new policy, personnel and, yes, Twitter. This is a US-centric piece based on…PredictIt Quiet. 1 min read 7th Dec 2020 2 answers No comments. S. Expertise: Legislation, Sports Betting, Horse Racing. Reddit is not the first platform to attempt a gamification of crowdsourcing, though others like PredictIt have. Free Bet Offers : Predictions for 100+ Leagues : Latest Results by League and Team : Up to Date League Tables : Statistics for 3000+ teams. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. Explore the prediction by Forex experts about the major currency pairs exchange rate for tomorrow and next week. PredictIt says it is not like an online gambling site because it mainly exists to supply its data to universities for academic research, one of the main reasons the U. High fees along with restrictions blocking automatic. PredictIt— Here's the deal: more than 100,000 people are now betting on politics through the website PredictIt. 89 for Republicans to win. A maximum of 5,000 people in one market. A PredictIt review that explains how it works, what types of markets are offered and how to wager on political events at this legal betting site. hide. after being granted a No-Action Letter by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 12 for Democrats to win, . PredictItPredictIt Political Analysis is a blog that offers insights and commentary on the latest trends and events in politics and prediction markets. Our Data. . The agency rejected a 2012 proposal by the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADE) on the basis that the proposed. BetOnline also has Trump at +160 but Biden at a shorter -180, with money coming in on. The PredictIt plaintiff lawyers argued that fairness and the Administrative Procedure Act require reasoned decision-making and a detailed explanation before ordering the market to close. PredictIt to Halt Trading in February After Regulator Pulls ‘No-Action’ Letter. Chart by author The Unwisdom Of Crowds. That’s an essential reprieve with the original Feb 15 shutdown deadline now less than three weeks away. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. Discover the full list of predictit. datatable). In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. . PredictIt had Biden leading overall at 68 cents to Trump. Now if we buy No shares on every candidate, we get into a situation (at least currently) where we profit no matter who wins. Market the benefits of 'PredictIt' and why it is better than our competitors. Find Predictit's competitors, compare Predictit's features and pricing vs. Betting Prediction Markets Practical. As a young boy growing up in East London, Paul Krishnamurty and his friends would bet on pretty much everything. Site: PredictIt. Loss. PredictItsites for prediction,By 2022, it had 80,000 active s, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very seriously. S. In Virginia, it had Youngkin up to 60% when the media was still calling it tossup to tilt D. PredictIt and Betfair as of Tuesday morning at 11 a. 31. 00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. org Competitors. Users can purchase shares of an outcome, like buying "Yes" or "No" shares of whether or not the Farm Bill will pass by June 30. 3%: $882,928. track the election with a red/blue map of the us updated daily using the latest state polls. electoral-vote. November 7 11:50 a. Rules and limits Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, eliminating the risk of prosecution for illegal. But PredictIt also allows for those with inside knowledge of future. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. And indeed, FiveThirtyEight. S. Embed Package Health Score Badge. predict(data=np. Search similar titlesPredictIt. BetMoose is a peer-to. org in July 2023 are ranked by their affinity to predictit. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Yeah, you guys are definitely on PredictIt. The only such market of any size in the U. Data. Cage began scanning PredictIt for QAnon theories and betting against them. To continue operations until Feb. Below is a list of prediction market platforms and implementations that may be useful for futures studies. Resources. DETROW: John Aristotle Phillips is PredictIt's CEO. According to Nate Silver’s site, this election is still close to a tossup, whereas the wagering on PredictIt suggests it’s all but decided. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. In 2017, more than 300 million shares were traded on PredictIt. PredictItPredictItPredictItAs prediction markets like PredictIt gain exposure in mainstream political media, trader-determined odds in high-visibility markets often get reported on by media outlets and amplified to the public. To engage with some new technologies, you should try a project like sspaeti's 20 minute data engineering project. Feb/11/2023. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it,. It was the leading platform for individuals to bet on the. 01 to $0. Political bettors on the PredictIt exchange were enraged when they went to buy or sell shares of the 2020 outcome and found the site inaccessible. Interactive periodic table showing names, electrons, and oxidation states. When/if PredictIt's odds become more efficient and get close to 100%, this site's main page will include the odds. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As of January 3, 11. org – basically, an options market for elections – is based out of Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, and has been legally operating in America since 2014 under a “no-action” letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Division (CFTC), based out of Washington, D. Current as of Map Timestamp. The goal of this project is to develop a tool that can be used to. PredictIt Insight is a platform that offers data-driven insights on politics and prediction markets. , a U. S. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Other Things. Before Iowa, Betfair, and competitor PredictIt gave Pete Buttigieg only an 8 percent chance of winning the most state delegate equivalents (which he did, pending a recanvass). You can explore the latest trends, analysis, and commentary on various topics, such as Trump's influence, the 2020 election, and more. 1: People who bet. 3. PredictIt is also a valuable research tool for academics and journalists who want to understand how markets forecast events. PredictIt. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome. November. As of Wednesday morning, DeSantis picks were 40 cents, while Trump bets were down to 31, in the market. PredictIt, a university-owned nonprofit platform for investors to trade. Predictit, the most often referenced one, has a fee structure that makes it horribly inefficient: they take 10% of all winnings on a given bet and 5% of all withdrawals from the site. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). . Rank in the United States. Although numerous bookmakers. In addition, you can join various forums to have discussions with like-minded folks. 69 for Republicans to winThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered that PredictIt, a popular political betting site, shut down by mid-February 2023. Rajiv Sethi focuses on the likelihood that PredictIt will have to wind down operations, and the messiness and gaming opportunities that will result from having to close out contracts that expire after PredictIt ends operations. BetMGM Ontario Election Odds. [+] Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) fill orders shortly before the close of trading on October 28, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. You can buy and sell shares of real-world events and earn money if your predictions are correct. Low $850 cap on maximum position in a contract. Last updated on: August 5, 2022, 10:45h. Jennings revealed that the election event has. Click Now. A maximum of $850 in betting per person per contract ( not per market) A substantial house cut of 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. That's exactly correct. org News and Media website This domain provided by whois. New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. ”. share. Join PredictIt today. It sounds like fun, but is it all sunshine and roses? We have the answers in our. Miller prefers using data from the PredictIt exchange because it provides data on all Electoral College markets and limits each bet to $850. org competitors and alternatives. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, reportedly arranged a $130,000 payment to silence Daniels about an alleged affair with Trump. Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit. org competitors and alternatives. Advertisement Harry Crane is a professor of statistics at Rutgers. The Fifth Circuit panel issued the decision on July 21 following a split 2-1 vote. PredictIt, a market that built its name by letting Americans bet on who will be elected to Congress or the next president, has lost its legal authority to. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam shared insights on the future of regulated prediction markets like Kalshi during a recent panel discussion. Do not assume that Internet gaming sites are in compliance with the rules and regulations of every jurisdiction from which they accept players. You face numerous challenges and risks—some you. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules. Visualize trends, 3D orbitals, isotopes, and mix compounds. No. TOP LINE Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions. 6. was running it; that a subsidiary of the university was receiving compensation from Aristotle, despite the university promising not to profit from the site; and that the site had reneged on its agreement to only take bets on two. Windy is a prediction platform that allows users to make predictions on a. 07% take fee) FAIRLAY (betting exchange, variable complex commission structure, 0. 15. Just as companies like Robinhood and DraftKings have capitalized on the gamification of day trading and dearth of entertainment while millions found themselves stuck at home and in need of a distraction from the pandemic, PredictIt has benefited from an unprecedented election cycle. Similar overlays (for a better user experience) can be built on Augur as well, like eg guesser or STLD. It’s a web site the place you possibly can place bets and win cash on political outcomes. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party. 37 for Democrats to win, . ”PredictItOn average Trump gets ~5. 141,467. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. It captured GOP strength in key states that almost all mainstream pollsters. S. Reply [-] rossry 4y 7. Forecastr. He’d look for anything weird—usually something like suspiciously high odds that a Democrat would be indicted. 85. Canada: Live stream, start time, aggregate score for Nations League quarterfinal second leg;PredictItSo there's an argument that I've seen a lot over the past few years, particularly in LW-adjacent circles, that goes something like this: This post is dedicated to disagreeing with that argument, not from an anti-Efficient-Market Hypothesis position, but from a pro-Efficient-Market Hypothesis position. A larger, rival betting site, Kalshi, which takes bets on things like inflation rates and the price of gasoline, now wants to take election bets, too. The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. PredictIt 16. PredictIt is hoping its 2024 election night goes much smoother than it did on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The CFTC feels that the ruling in United States v. Likewise, if other prediction markets like Augur or Predictious take off, I will include those. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites. By Danny Funt. users in February, according to an order from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. GOP 2024 presidential nominee. PredictItPredictIt is a platform where you can make predictions on political events and trade shares based on their outcomes. The site launched legally late 2014 in the U. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. Reveal predictit. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. I propose developing a read only API that allows people to track markets and have Apps, widgets, and email alerts without you having to develop them yourselves. 00:00. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. November. PredictIt has an $850 limit on any one market, for any one candidate or other potential outcome. After the market resolves, redeem your winning shares for $1 each. The only such market of any size in the U. 9. The turned to PredictIt because it allowed them to place wagers that were a touch more niche than standard bookmakers offered, but now the site is shutting down and will be missed by those s. Get the full predictit. PredictIt This isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Of course, spoofing requires spending money to buy shares, with no guarantee of profit, but this can be a small price to pay for this supposed. The Vegas bookmakers do not set lines to equalize betting on both side of a wager & in many cases it isn’t possible to do so, just look at the Mattress Mack World. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. e. We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. The CFTC has also recommended rejecting the request by Kalshi. See how Predictit compares to similar products. PredictItHave you found a working PredictIt coupon that you'd like to share? Submit it here to help millions of other shoppers save at the checkout. New Predictit jobs added daily. New Predictit jobs added daily. com is ranked #0 in the Unknown category and #7041165 globally in June 2023. You can buy and sell shares of candidates and parties, and earn money if your predictions are correct. 44 billion between 2022 and 2027, according to Technavio's latest market research report. ) from libraries like Scikit, Statsmodels or Tensorflow. We examine individual-level trading data from several markets to determine what strategies correlate with financial success. S. Predictit - Arizona Senate Race. QAnon—the conspiracy theory that elite Democrats, government officials, and celebrities are part of a cannibalistic, child-sex-trafficking cult, and Donald Trump. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Many of PredictIt’s markets focus on political outcomes, like midterm results or the presidential race. It’s a way to monetize things like 2022 midterm predictions. Pennsylvania: John Fetterman vs. by Feb. com is the website with the highest similarity score to predictit. Shares of Democratic candidate. wider elections, the stock market, the real estate market, etc. A maximum of 5,000 people in one market. , a U. Shares can be. com is the website with the highest similarity score to predictit. Touch upon this story Remark In 2016, Jason Pipkin was working in a biology lab at Brandeis College, authoring papers with titles akin to “Mapping the thoughts of a fly,” when he first heard of PredictIt. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitors Not only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. [laughter] Alright, so PredictIt is what’s called a prediction market. Ron DeSantis 41¢. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The system delivers both the crowd’s prediction and, like the Delphi technique, allows forecasters to consider their own thinking in the light of other. PredictIt provides many markets with futures contracts linked to political issues, ranging from ongoing policy outcomes to political elections. Bitcoin. Automatically choose best models (ARIMA,. PredictIt Alternatives TradeFair. The site is supported by Aristotle International, Inc. electoral-vote. Login. The U. ’. So even though it seems like our investment costs $1. It's a. By 2022, it had 80,000 active users, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very. 2024 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker. Those heavily favored to be Trump states have (less than 15% change of Biden win on FiveThirtyEight) are actually less favored to go for Trump on PredictIt. You can browse various categories, such as presidential, congressional, state and local races, and see the latest prices and trends. Capping. A decision on the future of Victoria University’s political betting site PredictIt remains in the balance as the Fifth Circuit court agrees to allow it to keep trading for a bit longer. High fees on profits and withdrawals. DraftKings operates a mobile sportsbook in Ireland and has similar odds (-210 for Biden, +160 for Trump). 2. Alternatively, they could hold onto the shares until after Election Day and get paid out $1 per share for a. Visit PredictIt Insight to learn from the wisdom of the crowd and make smarter bets on the future. It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. PredictIt and Aristotle, which is the parent company for PredictIt, have said they must start work soon on a system that would allow them to settle contracts for a value between $1 and zero cents. Please note election odds are only available in Canada at regulated online sportsbooks. They will give you a match of 100% of your initial deposit up to 80 when you use BESTODDS coupon code. Well, because of the Sandwich bot issue, I couldn't be bothered to figure out how to bridge funds & LP via a relayer as some roundabout way to actually place bets (which was an intermediate way the team found to avoid the bots, but wasn't exactly the best UI) while my crypto experience extended to having some play-funds on Aave & more reading than. Join PredictIt today and test your political savvy. No Bitcoin support. Whether they are more accurate than polls doesn't change thatLike PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. elections, the odds of a “red wave” seemed pretty favorable. Republicans win. Forecasting is a public good, providing information to the public. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Is there a good alternative in the US for PredictIt? Has anyone on here used it before? Since they only offer pay by credit card, does the credit card treat the payment. I think you would be better off building something on top of Augur. This does not increase if you do arbitrage. By Danny Funt. 4: Professional election forecasters. 205 Pennsylvania Avenue SE . What that meant, essentially, is the CFTC allowed. The price of Yes, as of this writing, is 10 cents. Suggest an edit. withdrew its permission in August 2022, and ordered the site to shut down, saying it had. In that case, our account is credited with the lowest such profit. TOP LINE Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions. 202-543-8345. Trade on the world's most highly-debated topics like crypto, politics, sports, current events,. Accepts American customers. Business, Economics, and Finance. Predictit. Twitter. ). In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. Just two years before PredictIt broke onto the scene, the CFTC denied a proposal to launch similar political event contracts from the Northern American Derivatives Exchange, in part over concerns. ” PredictIt lets everyone see what everyday Americans, rather than just “experts,” think about future political events, without filtering those opinions through potentially biased pollsters. Saved Stories. 94% of traffic. The PredictIt exchange is similar to a stock exchange, where traders can buy or sell up until the event in question – such as the 2024 presidential election – concludes. Products. By 2016, popular markets such as the Michigan primaries alone generated more than 2 million trades, in part because prominent pundits like James Carville announced on TV that they were betting on PredictIt. What makes Lemmy one of the best alternatives is its versatility. PredictItPredictIt is a prediction market that allows you to trade on the outcomes of political and social events. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minutePredictItFor its part, PredictIt “maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the . PredictIt Alternatives TradeFair. IEM, PredictIt, and the other online markets were wrong about Brexit, and they were wrong about Trump’s win in 2016. package health package health 47/100 47/100. to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or…. If the outcome takes place, the yes shares are redeemed for $1 and the no shares expire worthless. org) submitted 1 year ago by gwern to r/slatestarcodex. Washington, DC, 20003, United States. Using artificial intelligence, predictIT automatically generates overviews and insights that helps the Project Manager to manage the project. It seems like PredictIt's 10% effectively moves the point at which it isn't worth it to correct the inefficiency further out from equilibrium than in the case of free trades. Political betting site PredictIt to shut down after CFTC withdraws approval ( predictit. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Buy Bitcoin in Europe. Find Predictit's. Explore the markets for the 2020 US presidential election, the impeachment of Donald Trump, the 2022 Brazil presidential election and more. One example is BetFair, which is predominantly for sports betting. Menu Discover the full list of predictit. com election betting odds by maxim lott and john stossel live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! who will win? biden, trump, harris, desantis?. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. However, PredictIt is expected to liquidate its event contracts by February 15, 2023. That legal matter involves a No Action letter that the CFTC issued then withdrew in. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the outcome of political events. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. S. org after the election, but I was unable to join since I don't live in. International filed a lawsuit on Friday, Sept. Two of the sites that Election Betting Odds pulls from — Betfair and Smarkets — showed DeSantis holding a substantial lead over Trump, with the Florida governor coming in at 27 percent to 27. Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. Follow PredictZ. 8. The firm has operated in the U. Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. PredictIt is somewhat larger and more active, with something like $1 million in its individual market, but that is still not much money in the grand scheme of things. com, Dr. marginalrevolution. Getty; The Atlantic. ) are legal. PredictIt told its U. Low $850 cap on maximum position in a contract. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting today the Federal Reserve said that it was keeping short-term. Subjectively, I’ve found that predictit comes to a similar conclusion to conventional wisdom but it does it faster and more decisively. I saw the post calling for us to fix the market inefficiency on predictit. Project 2. 2023Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). One of the highest courts in the country agrees that in 2014 PredictIt was issued a. Looking for brands like Predictit? We've researched the 8 top alternatives to Predictit and summarized the best options here in this Predictit competitors grid. PredictIt injunction kept political betting site open The Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fired back last week in an appeal proceeding at light speed over whether the popular election betting prediction site PredictIt will close, at least temporarily, on February 15 at 11:59 PM. The site is an excellent alternative or complement to online political betting markets. by df fd. The other is a similar exchange from the University of Iowa, which has been active since the mid-1990s. S. m. PredictIt is currently offering shares in Biden being the nominee for 68 cents, meaning a trader who bought a share would earn 32 cents if he is the Democratic candidate in 2024, which is likely. 01 to $0. Only moderators, or moderator-approved users, can create Prediction Tournaments. Posted on: August 4, 2022, 08:27h. 00-0. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM.